The Duqm Vision
Duqm is Oman’s most ambitious infrastructure bet: transforming a small fishing village on the Arabian Sea coast into a major industrial, port, and logistics hub. The Special Economic Zone at Duqm (SEZAD) spans 2,000 square kilometres, making it one of the largest free zones in the Middle East. The investment includes a deep-water port, dry dock, oil refinery, fishing port, airport, and industrial zones. Total planned investment exceeds USD 15 billion from both government and private sources. The strategic logic is compelling: Duqm sits outside the Strait of Hormuz, on major Indian Ocean shipping routes, with space for heavy industry.
Progress and Challenges
Significant infrastructure has been built: the port is operational, the dry dock has repaired naval and commercial vessels, the refinery is under construction, and Chinese and other international investors have committed to industrial park development. However, progress has been slower than planned. Occupancy rates in industrial zones remain below targets. The Chinese industrial park has advanced but at a fraction of the originally envisaged pace. The town’s social infrastructure – housing, schools, healthcare, entertainment – is insufficient to attract and retain a large workforce. The remoteness that provides strategic value also creates livability challenges.
Success Factors
Duqm can succeed if several conditions are met: the refinery reaches full operation and stimulates downstream petrochemical activity; the green hydrogen projects planned for the area attract investment and begin production; the Chinese industrial park achieves meaningful occupancy with export-oriented manufacturers; the port develops transhipment traffic leveraging its Arabian Sea location; and the Etihad Rail connection (eventually) links Duqm to the broader GCC logistics network. Each of these is plausible but none is certain.
The Honest Assessment
The honest assessment is that Duqm will likely succeed partially – becoming a significant Omani industrial and logistics centre – but probably not achieve the transformative mega-hub vision within the originally envisioned timeline. Mega-projects of this scale typically take 20-30 years to reach maturity. Dubai’s Jebel Ali free zone, the regional model, took decades to reach its current dominance. Oman should sustain investment in Duqm while managing expectations and ensuring that the project’s costs are sustainable relative to the national budget. Patience, not panic, is the appropriate disposition.