The Convergence Thesis
On the surface, GCC states appear to be converging: all have adopted national vision strategies (UAE Vision 2021, Saudi Vision 2030, Oman Vision 2040, Kuwait Vision 2035, Bahrain Vision 2030, Qatar Vision 2030); all are investing in economic diversification; all face similar demographic and labour market challenges; all are implementing fiscal reforms including VAT; and all are pursuing digital transformation. The policy toolkit is remarkably similar across the bloc, suggesting convergence toward a common development model.
The Divergence Reality
Look deeper and divergence is more striking. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are pulling away from smaller GCC members in economic scale, diversification progress, institutional capacity, and international positioning. The UAE’s GDP per capita is more than double Oman’s. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 investment programme dwarfs anything its neighbours can match. The wealth gap within the GCC is widening, not narrowing. Policy approaches also diverge: Saudi Arabia’s social liberalisation contrasts with Oman’s gradualism; the UAE’s immigration openness differs from Kuwait’s restrictionism; Qatar’s foreign policy independence challenges GCC solidarity.
Competition Dynamics
Increasingly, GCC states compete with each other rather than cooperating. Ports compete for shipping traffic. Airlines compete for routes and passengers. Free zones compete for investment. Tourism destinations compete for visitors. These competitive dynamics can be productive (driving improvement) but also wasteful (duplicating infrastructure) and destabilising (undermining regional integration). For Oman, the competitive pressure is acute: the Sultanate lacks the fiscal firepower of Saudi Arabia, the brand recognition of the UAE, or the per-capita wealth of Qatar.
Oman’s Strategic Position
In a diverging GCC, Oman must find its distinctive niche rather than attempting to replicate neighbours’ strategies. Potential niches include: green hydrogen leadership (differentiated from Saudi oil-to-hydrogen and UAE nuclear-and-solar strategies); authentic cultural tourism (versus Dubai’s commercial tourism or Saudi Arabia’s mega-project tourism); Indian Ocean logistics connectivity (versus Dubai’s global hub model); and diplomatic mediation services (uniquely Omani). Success requires honest self-assessment of what Oman can be best at, rather than trying to be a smaller version of the UAE.