Definition
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI), developed by the Harvard Growth Lab (Ricardo Hausmann, César Hidalgo), measures the productive knowledge embedded in an economy by analysing the diversity and ubiquity of its export products. Countries that export many different complex products (products that few countries can make) score high on ECI. Countries dominated by commodity exports score low.
ECI correlates strongly with future economic growth and income levels — high-ECI countries tend to be high-income. Germany, Japan, Switzerland, and South Korea consistently rank at the top.
Vision 2040 Targets
| Year | ECI Score | Global Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 (Baseline) | -0.004 | 62 |
| 2022 (Estimate) | ~0.25 | ~50 |
| 2030 (Target) | >1.186 | Top 20 |
| 2040 (Target) | >1.577 | Top 10 |
The Scale of Oman’s Ambition
Moving from ECI rank 62 (-0.004) to top 10 (>1.577) in 23 years would be one of the most dramatic economic complexity improvements in modern history. Japan, Germany, and South Korea took decades of patient industrial policy to reach top-10 ECI positions.
The target implies Oman developing deep industrial ecosystems with sophisticated manufactured goods export capability — not merely more of its current commodity exports.
Current Estimate
Oman’s ECI of approximately 0.25 (2022) represents genuine progress from -0.004 but is well below the trajectory required for the 2040 target. Achieving top-10 ECI requires building entirely new industries: precision manufacturing, specialty chemicals, electronics components, sophisticated services.
Measurement Methodology
ECI is calculated from bilateral trade data (UN Comtrade), applying an iterative algorithm that simultaneously measures product complexity and country complexity. A country’s ECI is high if it exports many products that only a few other countries export. Data is available with a 2-3 year lag.