Definition
Non-oil GDP share is the percentage of a country’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) generated by sectors other than crude oil, natural gas, and related upstream extraction activities. It is the primary metric for measuring economic diversification in hydrocarbon-dependent economies.
In Oman’s context, non-oil GDP includes: manufacturing, construction, tourism, logistics, agriculture, fishing, financial services, real estate, government services, and all other non-hydrocarbon activities.
Vision 2040 Targets
| Year | Non-Oil GDP Share |
|---|---|
| 2017 (Baseline) | 61% |
| 2023 (Estimate) | ~70.5% |
| 2030 (Target) | 83.9% |
| 2040 (Target) | 91.6% |
Interpretation
Rising non-oil GDP share reflects two simultaneous processes: (1) growth in non-oil sectors, and (2) relative decline (or slower growth) of the oil sector as a share of the total economy. Achieving 91.6% by 2040 requires extraordinary non-oil sector development over 16 years.
Current Status
Oman’s non-oil GDP share has risen from 61% (2017) to approximately 70.5% (2023) — progress, but well below the trajectory required to reach 83.9% by 2030. The remaining 21 percentage points require transformational sectoral development.
Related Indicators
Economic Complexity Index (ECI) provides a complementary measure — assessing not just the size of non-oil GDP but the sophistication and diversity of its composition.