Climate Projections
The Gulf region is one of the most climate-vulnerable areas on Earth. Temperatures are rising at twice the global average rate. Climate models project that by 2050, summer temperatures in parts of the Gulf could exceed the threshold for human survivability outdoors (wet-bulb temperature above 35 degrees Celsius) for significant periods. Sea level rise threatens coastal infrastructure. Extreme weather events – cyclones, flash floods, prolonged heatwaves – are increasing in frequency and intensity. Oman has already experienced devastating cyclones (Gonu in 2007, Shaheen in 2021) that caused billions in damage.
Water Security
Water scarcity is Oman’s most acute climate vulnerability. The Sultanate is classified as severely water-stressed, with renewable freshwater resources among the lowest per capita globally. Groundwater aquifers are being depleted faster than they recharge. Desalination provides approximately 80 percent of municipal water supply but is energy-intensive and expensive. Climate change reduces already minimal rainfall, increases evaporation, and raises water demand for agriculture and cooling. Oman’s water security challenge will intensify regardless of global emissions trajectory.
Economic Disruption
Climate change threatens Oman’s economy through multiple pathways: increased cooling costs (already representing a significant share of electricity demand), agricultural productivity decline, fisheries disruption from ocean warming and acidification, infrastructure damage from extreme weather, tourism deterrence during summer months, and increased health costs from heat-related illness. The construction and outdoor labour sectors face productivity losses as temperatures rise. Insurance costs for coastal and flood-prone assets will increase substantially.
Adaptation Imperatives
Oman must invest aggressively in climate adaptation: coastal defence and flood management infrastructure, heat-resilient building standards, water efficiency and recycling technology, drought-resistant agriculture, early warning systems for extreme weather, and urban planning that accounts for rising temperatures. The green hydrogen strategy offers both a mitigation contribution (reducing global emissions) and an economic adaptation (replacing oil revenues with clean energy income). Climate resilience must be embedded in every aspect of Vision 2040 planning, from infrastructure design to economic diversification priorities.