The Nuclear Question
Iran’s nuclear programme remains the most consequential security issue in the Gulf region. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of 2015, which Oman helped facilitate, collapsed after the US withdrawal in 2018. Since then, Iran has progressively expanded its uranium enrichment capacity, reducing breakout time estimates. Negotiations for a successor agreement have stalled repeatedly. The possibility of Iran achieving nuclear weapons capability – or of a military strike to prevent it – represents an existential risk scenario for all Gulf states.
Strait of Hormuz Vulnerability
Oman’s geography places it at the epicentre of any Iran-related crisis. The Sultanate controls the southern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Approximately 20-25 percent of global petroleum passes through the Strait daily. Any military confrontation involving Iran would almost certainly affect Strait transit, with devastating consequences for Oman’s economy (dependent on hydrocarbon exports through the Strait), its shipping and logistics ambitions, and the physical security of its northern coastal population.
Diplomatic Role
Oman’s unique relationship with Iran positions it as an indispensable mediator. The Sultanate facilitated the secret US-Iran talks that led to the JCPOA and continues to serve as a diplomatic channel between Tehran, Washington, and Gulf capitals. This mediator role gives Oman diplomatic influence far exceeding its economic or military weight. However, it also requires maintaining a delicate balance – being close enough to Iran to be a credible interlocutor without alienating GCC partners or Western allies.
Scenario Planning
Oman must plan for multiple scenarios: a new nuclear agreement that eases tensions and potentially opens Iran’s economy (creating both opportunities and competitive pressures); continued stalemate with periodic escalation; or outright conflict. Each scenario has profoundly different implications for Oman’s economy, security, and diplomatic positioning. The development of Duqm port on the Arabian Sea coast provides some strategic hedging – offering a logistics and export facility outside the Strait of Hormuz vulnerability zone.