The Competitive Landscape
The Gulf has become a theatre of intensifying US-China strategic competition. The United States has been the Gulf’s primary security provider for decades, maintaining military bases, providing weapons systems, and guaranteeing maritime security. China has emerged as the region’s largest trade partner, buying the majority of Gulf oil exports and investing heavily in infrastructure, technology, and financial services. This duality – American security umbrella, Chinese economic gravity – creates complex choices for Gulf states.
Oman’s Balancing Act
Oman maintains strong relationships with both powers. The US partnership, anchored by the 1833 Treaty of Amity, the 2006 FTA, and extensive military cooperation, provides security assurance and diplomatic access. The China relationship, centred on energy trade, BRI investments at Duqm, and growing technology cooperation, provides economic opportunity and infrastructure development. Oman, consistent with its neutrality tradition, seeks to maintain productive ties with both without being forced into alignment with either.
Pressure Points
The balancing act faces increasing strain as US-China competition intensifies. American pressure to limit Huawei 5G equipment, scrutiny of Chinese port investments at Duqm, and expectations of alignment on Taiwan and South China Sea issues create friction. Chinese expectations of diplomatic support, expanded market access, and technology adoption create their own pressures. Oman’s small size provides some insulation – it is less strategically consequential than Saudi Arabia or the UAE – but the pressure to choose is growing.
Strategic Implications
Oman’s optimal strategy is to remain an attractive partner for both powers without becoming dependent on either. This requires diversifying security partnerships beyond the US (engaging European and Asian partners), ensuring Chinese investment brings genuine technology transfer and local employment rather than enclave development, and maintaining the diplomatic independence that gives Oman value to both sides. The risk is that accelerating US-China confrontation narrows the space for neutrality that has been Oman’s strategic foundation.