Conflict Overview
The Yemen civil war, which escalated dramatically in 2015 with the Saudi-led coalition intervention, has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and a persistent source of regional instability. The conflict pits the internationally recognised government and its Saudi-UAE coalition backers against Houthi forces controlling much of northern Yemen including Sanaa. Despite a fragile truce process, the conflict remains unresolved, with periodic escalation including Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and – most consequentially – international shipping in the Red Sea.
Border and Security Implications
Oman shares a remote but lengthy border with Yemen (approximately 288 km), primarily across the Empty Quarter desert and the Dhofar mountains. This border has been a conduit for refugees, smuggling, and potential security threats. Oman has invested in border security infrastructure and surveillance capabilities, but the terrain is challenging. The Sultanate has avoided military involvement in the Yemen conflict, refusing to join the Saudi-led coalition – a decision consistent with Oman’s neutrality principle but one that required diplomatic skill to navigate given GCC solidarity pressures.
Humanitarian and Diplomatic Role
Oman has played a quiet but important humanitarian role, facilitating the transit of aid supplies, hosting diplomatic negotiations between conflict parties, and providing medical treatment to wounded Yemenis. Oman’s relationships with the Houthi movement – facilitated by historical tribal and family connections across the border – give it unique diplomatic access. The Sultanate has facilitated prisoner exchanges and ceasefire negotiations, continuing its tradition of behind-the-scenes mediation.
Long-term Implications
A stable, peaceful Yemen would benefit Oman enormously: opening trade opportunities, reducing border security costs, and stabilising the broader region. Conversely, continued conflict risks further humanitarian pressure, potential refugee flows, arms proliferation, and the possibility of direct security threats from non-state actors operating in ungoverned Yemeni territory. Oman’s interest in Yemen stability is existential rather than merely diplomatic, and it will likely continue investing diplomatic capital in mediation efforts regardless of which external powers engage.