Overview
The outlook for Oman’s agriculture sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~1.5% and a target of 3%+, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Contribution | ~1.5% | 3%+ by 2040 |
| Date Production | ~370,000 tonnes/yr | 500,000+ tonnes/yr |
| Food Import Dependency | ~60% | 40% by 2040 |
| Omanisation Rate | ~88% | 90%+ by 2040 |
| Arable Land Utilised | ~5% | 8%+ by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches 3%+ GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of OMR 1.2 billion food security investment programme is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Acute water scarcity (renewable water ~500 m3/capita/yr vs global average 6,000), arable land limited to ~5 percent of territory, high food import dependency (~60 percent of consumption), climate change stress, and fragmented smallholder farming.
Opportunities
Controlled-environment agriculture (greenhouses, vertical farming), date processing and export (premium Omani dates), organic certification, agri-tech (precision irrigation, drone monitoring), and frankincense value chain development.
Vision 2040 Targets
Raise agriculture GDP share to 3 percent; reduce food import dependency to 40 percent; double date export value; deploy precision irrigation on 50 percent of farmland; establish 5 controlled-environment farming zones.