Overview
The outlook for Oman’s digital sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~3% and a target of 8-10%, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Contribution | ~3% | 8-10% by 2040 |
| 5G Coverage | ~30% (urban) | 95%+ by 2040 |
| ICT Workforce | ~12,000 | 100,000+ by 2040 |
| Omanisation Rate | ~78% | 85%+ by 2040 |
| Tech Startups | ~120 | 500+ by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches 8-10% GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of USD 4 billion planned digital infrastructure spend is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Brain drain of tech talent to UAE, limited venture capital for startups, cybersecurity readiness gaps, digital literacy disparities outside Muscat, and slow enterprise cloud adoption.
Opportunities
Government-as-a-platform digital services, smart city projects (Madinat Al Irfan), AI-driven oil field optimisation, cybersecurity services for GCC, edtech and healthtech verticals, and data centre expansion leveraging submarine cable connectivity.
Vision 2040 Targets
Raise digital GDP share to 8-10 percent; achieve 95 percent 5G population coverage; train 100,000 digital professionals; launch 500+ tech startups; position Oman as a GCC cybersecurity hub.