Overview
The outlook for Oman’s education sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~5% public spend and a target of Maintained at 5%+, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Education Spend (% GDP) | ~5% | 5%+ maintained |
| SQU QS Ranking | 334th | Top 200 by 2040 |
| STEM Enrolment | ~18% | 35% by 2040 |
| Universities in QS 500 | 5 | 8+ by 2040 |
| Research Output (GCC share) | ~0.3% | 2%+ by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches Maintained at 5%+ GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of OMR 2.5 billion annual education budget is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Skills mismatch between graduates and labour market needs, low STEM enrolment (~18 percent of tertiary students), quality assurance gaps in private institutions, limited research output (0.3 percent of GCC total), and teacher retention in remote governorates.
Opportunities
EdTech platforms for blended learning, international branch campus partnerships, TVET expansion aligned with manufacturing and logistics needs, research commercialisation through SQU Innovation Park, and lifelong learning programmes for workforce reskilling.
Vision 2040 Targets
Place two universities in QS top 200; raise STEM enrolment to 35 percent; achieve 95 percent secondary completion rate; triple research output; establish Oman as a regional education hub attracting 50,000 international students.