Overview
The outlook for Oman’s fisheries sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~1% and a target of 3%+, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Catch | ~290,000 tonnes | 600,000 tonnes by 2040 |
| GDP Contribution | ~1% | 3%+ by 2040 |
| Aquaculture Output | ~5,000 tonnes | 200,000 tonnes by 2040 |
| Omanisation Rate | ~95% | 95% maintained |
| Processing Ratio | ~30% | 70%+ by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches 3%+ GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of OMR 500 million in aquaculture projects is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Overfishing pressure on traditional stocks, limited cold-chain and processing infrastructure, low value addition (70 percent sold fresh/unprocessed), climate change impacts on marine ecosystems, and competition from Asian aquaculture imports.
Opportunities
Aquaculture mega-projects (shrimp, abalone, sea cucumber), fish processing and canning for export, marine biotech research, sustainable fishing certification (MSC), and integration with tourism (sport fishing, seafood gastronomy trails).
Vision 2040 Targets
Raise fisheries GDP share to 3 percent; grow annual production to 600,000 tonnes (including aquaculture); establish 10 aquaculture zones; increase processed fish exports fivefold; maintain 95 percent Omanisation.