Overview
The outlook for Oman’s healthcare sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~4% and a target of 7%+, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Contribution | ~4% | 7%+ by 2040 |
| Health Facilities | 250+ | 400+ by 2040 |
| Omanisation Rate | ~62% | 75%+ by 2040 |
| Pharma Import Dependency | ~90% | 50% by 2040 |
| Life Expectancy | ~77 years | 80+ years by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches 7%+ GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of OMR 1.8 billion annual public health expenditure is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Rising non-communicable disease burden (diabetes ~15 percent prevalence), specialist physician shortage, geographic access disparities in Al Wusta and Dhofar, limited private insurance uptake, and high pharmaceutical import dependency (~90 percent).
Opportunities
Medical tourism from GCC and East Africa, pharmaceutical manufacturing (Oman Pharma City), digital health and telemedicine, genomics-driven personalised medicine, and PPP models for new hospitals.
Vision 2040 Targets
Increase healthcare GDP share to 7 percent; reduce pharmaceutical import dependency to 50 percent; train 5,000 Omani specialist physicians; achieve universal health insurance coverage; establish a regional genomics research centre.