Overview
The outlook for Oman’s logistics sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~5% and a target of 12-15%, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Salalah Throughput | ~7M TEU | 14M TEU by 2040 |
| Sohar Cargo | ~17M tonnes | 35M tonnes by 2040 |
| GDP Contribution | ~5% | 12-15% by 2040 |
| Rail Network | Under construction | 2,200 km by 2040 |
| Omanisation Rate | ~55% | 70% by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches 12-15% GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of USD 30 billion committed through 2040 is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Competition from Jebel Ali (Dubai) and Khalifa Port (Abu Dhabi), incomplete rail network, customs process bottlenecks, shortage of skilled logistics professionals, and limited cold-chain infrastructure.
Opportunities
Duqm Special Economic Zone as a trans-shipment hub, Oman Rail freight corridors reducing trucking costs by 40 percent, free zone incentives, digital logistics platforms, and Belt and Road connectivity.
Vision 2040 Targets
Increase GDP share to 12-15 percent; complete 2,200 km national rail network; double Salalah throughput; position Duqm as a top-20 global port; achieve 70 percent Omanisation.