Overview
The outlook for Oman’s mining sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~1% and a target of 3-5%, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Contribution | ~1% | 3-5% by 2040 |
| Mineral Types Identified | 50+ | Full survey by 2030 |
| Omanisation Rate | ~45% | 60%+ by 2040 |
| Mining Exports | ~OMR 300M | OMR 1B+ by 2040 |
| Processing Ratio | ~20% | 60%+ by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches 3-5% GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of OMR 800 million planned investment is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Limited geological survey data for frontier areas, small-scale artisanal operations lacking efficiency, water scarcity for processing, environmental permitting bottlenecks, and low domestic value addition (most minerals exported as raw ore).
Opportunities
Copper smelting and refining (Oman has significant sulphide deposits), limestone for cement and construction materials export, rare earth element exploration, marble and dimension stone for luxury markets, and critical minerals for battery supply chains.
Vision 2040 Targets
Raise mining GDP share to 3-5 percent; complete national geological survey; establish three mineral processing zones; double mining exports; achieve 60 percent Omanisation.