Overview
The outlook for Oman’s tourism sector to 2040 is shaped by Vision 2040’s ambitious diversification agenda, global megatrends, and sector-specific dynamics. With a current GDP contribution of ~2.8% and a target of 10%+, the sector must achieve transformative growth while navigating structural challenges and competitive pressures from GCC peers.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Visitors | ~1.4M (pre-COVID) | 10M by 2040 |
| GDP Contribution | ~2.8% | 10%+ by 2040 |
| Hotel Rooms | ~22,000 | 50,000+ by 2040 |
| Omanisation Rate | ~42% | 60%+ by 2040 |
| Direct Employment | ~45,000 | 500,000 by 2040 |
Scenario Analysis
Base Case (60% probability): Steady reform implementation drives gradual growth. The sector reaches 10%+ GDP contribution by 2038-2040. Investment of USD 8 billion in planned projects is largely deployed. Omanisation targets are substantially met. Key risks are managed but not eliminated.
Upside Case (25% probability): Accelerated reform, strong oil prices funding transition investments, and successful technology adoption propel the sector beyond targets. International investment exceeds expectations. Oman emerges as a GCC leader in select sub-segments.
Downside Case (15% probability): Reform fatigue, prolonged low oil prices, or regional instability slow progress. The sector achieves only 60-70 percent of Vision 2040 targets. Skills gaps and infrastructure delays compound.
Challenges
Limited airlift capacity, seasonal demand concentration, shortage of mid-range accommodation, low brand awareness compared to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and infrastructure gaps in remote tourism sites.
Opportunities
Eco-tourism and adventure tourism niches, cruise tourism via Muscat port expansion, medical tourism leveraging new hospital capacity, cultural heritage trails, and MICE (meetings/incentives/conferences) segment growth.
Vision 2040 Targets
Reach 10 million visitors annually; increase GDP share to over 10 percent; develop 30,000+ additional hotel rooms; create 500,000 tourism-related jobs; achieve 60 percent Omanisation in hospitality.