Definition
Non-oil GDP refers to the portion of a country’s gross domestic product generated by sectors other than crude oil and natural gas extraction. It captures the combined output of manufacturing, services, agriculture, fisheries, mining, tourism, logistics, and all other economic activities that do not depend directly on hydrocarbon production. For resource-rich nations like Oman, tracking non-oil GDP is critical because it reveals how resilient the economy would be if oil prices collapsed or reserves declined.
Context in Oman
Oman has historically relied on hydrocarbons for roughly 30 to 40 percent of GDP and over 60 percent of government revenue. Since the 2014-2016 oil price downturn, policymakers have accelerated efforts to grow non-oil sectors. The National Programme for Enhancing Economic Diversification (Tanfeedh) and Vision 2040 both set explicit non-oil GDP growth targets. Key growth engines include logistics (Duqm and Sohar ports), tourism (especially in Dhofar and Musandam), manufacturing (petrochemicals and steel), fisheries, and ICT services. The government has introduced free zones, relaxed foreign ownership rules, and launched privatisation initiatives to attract investment into non-oil industries.
Key Data Points
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Non-oil GDP share of total GDP (2023 est.) | ~72 % |
| Non-oil GDP growth rate (2023) | 1.9 % |
| Government revenue from hydrocarbons | ~60 % |
| Vision 2040 non-oil GDP target | 90 %+ by 2040 |
| Largest non-oil sector | Services and trade |
Vision 2040 Connection
Vision 2040 places non-oil GDP growth at the very heart of its economic pillar. The strategy aims for an economy where hydrocarbons contribute less than ten percent of GDP by 2040. Achieving this requires simultaneous investment in human capital, logistics infrastructure, technology adoption, and regulatory reform. Progress on non-oil GDP is one of the most-watched KPIs across all government performance dashboards.
Further Reading
- [[What is Economic Diversification]]
- [[Oman Oil Production Explained]]
- [[What is Tanfeedh]]