Accession and Context
Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said acceded to the Sultanate of Oman on 10 January 2020, following the death of Sultan Qaboos bin Said who had ruled for nearly 50 years. The transition was smooth and constitutionally orderly — a positive signal for political stability that markets and investors noted.
Sultan Haitham inherited a challenging economic situation:
- Fiscal deficit of approximately -8% of GDP
- Gross public debt rising toward 60% of GDP
- Oil price weakness (pre-COVID)
- Vision 2020 not having achieved its diversification targets
- Youth unemployment a persistent concern
Within months of his accession, COVID-19 struck — testing the new Sultan’s economic management from the outset.
2020: Institutional Restructuring
Sultan Haitham’s first year was marked by significant institutional reform:
OIA consolidation (May 2020): The Oman Investment Authority was established by Royal Decree, consolidating the State General Reserve Fund (SGRF) and Oman Investment Fund (OIF) into a single sovereign wealth entity — improving investment governance and strategic coherence.
Government restructuring: Several ministries were merged or restructured — reducing the size of the cabinet and improving policy coordination. The Ministry of Energy and Minerals was created to unify oil, gas, and minerals oversight.
COVID response: The government implemented economic support measures — a OMR 8 billion economic stimulus — while maintaining fiscal discipline relative to regional peers.
2021: Vision 2040 and VAT
Two landmark events defined 2021:
Vision 2040 (January 2021): The national strategy was formally launched — establishing the framework that defines Oman’s economic governance through 2040. Four pillars, 12 priorities, 70+ KPIs. The vision explicitly commits to a diversified, private-sector-led, knowledge-based economy.
VAT implementation (April 2021): Oman became the fourth GCC state to implement Value Added Tax at 5%. The implementation was managed without significant market disruption — a policy execution success.
OPAZ (May 2021): The Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones was established — unifying oversight of Duqm, Salalah, Sohar, and Al Mazunah zones.
Credit rating upgrade: Moody’s upgraded Oman’s sovereign credit rating — the first upgrade in years, reflecting improved fiscal management under Sultan Haitham.
2022-2023: The Fiscal Turnaround
The most dramatic achievement of the Sultan Haitham era is the fiscal turnaround — from a deficit of -11.7% of GDP (2017 baseline) to consecutive surpluses:
- 2022: +1.5% of GDP (first surplus in years)
- 2023: +2.0% of GDP
- 2024: Estimated +2.8% of GDP
This was driven by higher oil prices (2022-2023), expenditure rationalisation, VAT revenue, and improved non-oil revenues. The surpluses have allowed debt reduction — from 44% to approximately 35% of GDP.
2024-2025: Milestone Year
The 2024/2025 period represents a particular concentration of Vision 2040 achievements:
OQEP IPO: Oman’s largest-ever equity listing — OMR 975 million raised, Muscat Stock Exchange market capitalisation significantly increased, government capital market development objectives advanced.
Oman Future Fund: OMR 2 billion sovereign development fund launched — deploying fiscal surplus productively.
CPI +20 places: Corruption Perceptions Index improvement of 20 places to rank 50th globally — a major signal to international investors of institutional improvement.
Investment and Commercial Court: Dedicated commercial dispute resolution — addressing a longstanding investor complaint.
5 universities in QS top 500: Education target exceeded 8 years ahead of schedule.
Green hydrogen agreements: Multiple new investments signed.
Governance Style
Sultan Haitham has demonstrated a governance style characterised by:
- Institutional reform focus: Restructuring government entities before reform programmes, not after
- Private sector orientation: Explicit commitment to private sector primacy in Vision 2040
- International engagement: Active diplomacy maintaining Oman’s balanced foreign policy while deepening economic partnerships
- Fiscal discipline: Maintaining expenditure controls even during oil price windfalls, using surpluses for debt reduction and sovereign fund capitalisation
- Digital government: Strong commitment to e-government as a modernisation vector
The Sultan’s personal background — economics and law education, senior government roles before accession — appears to have shaped a technocratic approach to economic governance.