Gap Alert: Economic Complexity
Severity: AMBER
Oman’s ECI ranking remains around 70th globally, indicating an export basket still heavily weighted toward low-complexity hydrocarbons.
Gap Analysis
The Economic Complexity Index measures the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export basket. Oman’s low ranking reflects the dominance of crude oil and refined petroleum products, supplemented by basic chemicals and metals. While non-oil exports are growing, they remain concentrated in relatively unsophisticated product categories. The gap to Vision 2040’s diversification ambitions is structural and will take years of sustained industrial policy to close.
What Needs to Change
Oman needs to develop clusters of related, higher-complexity products. Strategic options include moving up the petrochemical value chain toward specialty chemicals and polymers, developing a fisheries-processing industry beyond raw exports, and building capabilities in precision manufacturing at Duqm. A product-space analysis should guide sectoral targeting.
Risk Assessment
A persistently low ECI implies that the economy remains vulnerable to commodity-price shocks and unable to generate the high-value jobs needed for a post-oil future. The amber severity reflects the long-term nature of the challenge. This is a generational transformation that requires patient, consistent policy commitment.
Recommended Interventions
Recommended actions: establish a product-space strategy unit within the Ministry of Commerce; co-invest with anchor firms in identified complexity-building sectors; reform tariff and non-tariff barriers to enable access to intermediate inputs; and create a national quality infrastructure covering standards, testing, and certification to enable complex manufactured exports.
This gap alert is issued by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit and is updated quarterly. Severity levels: GREEN (on/ahead of track), AMBER (gap widening but recoverable), RED (structural gap requiring urgent intervention). Data sources include NCSI, World Bank WGI, IMF, and relevant international indices.