Gap Alert: Environmental Performance

Gap Alert: Environmental Performance

Severity: RED

The EPI score has declined from 49.2 to 42.5, making it the only KPI moving in the wrong direction, against a target of 74.69.

Gap Analysis

This is the largest absolute gap in the Vision 2040 framework: 32.19 points separate the current score from the top-20 target. Unlike other KPIs where Oman is making slow but positive progress, the EPI has regressed. Driving factors include worsening air quality from industrial expansion, acute water stress, declining fish stocks, and insufficient waste-management infrastructure. The 2022 EPI methodology revision also penalised countries with high per-capita emissions more heavily.

What Needs to Change

A fundamental reorientation of environmental policy is needed. Current approaches treat environmental protection as secondary to economic growth. Oman needs to mainstream environmental sustainability into industrial policy, urban planning, and fiscal incentives. Environmental considerations must become a core element of all major investment decisions.

Risk Assessment

Red severity. Environmental degradation is not just a KPI gap. It threatens the sustainability of Oman’s tourism ambitions, fisheries sector, and quality of life. International investors and ESG-conscious capital will increasingly penalise poor environmental performance through higher risk premiums.

Recommended Interventions

Critical interventions: enact a comprehensive Environmental Framework Law with binding emissions targets; introduce a carbon pricing mechanism for large emitters; invest in desalination-energy integration using renewables; mandate environmental impact assessments for all major projects; and establish a sovereign green bond programme to finance environmental infrastructure.

This gap alert is issued by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit and is updated quarterly. Severity levels: GREEN (on/ahead of track), AMBER (gap widening but recoverable), RED (structural gap requiring urgent intervention). Data sources include NCSI, World Bank WGI, IMF, and relevant international indices.