Gap Alert: Food Security

Gap Alert: Food Security

Severity: AMBER

Oman imports approximately 60 percent of its food requirements, and the Global Food Security Index score lags behind the Vision 2040 self-sufficiency targets.

Gap Analysis

Food security is structurally challenging for Oman due to arid climate, limited arable land, and severe water scarcity. The country’s food self-sufficiency ratio has improved modestly through greenhouse agriculture and fisheries expansion, but the import dependency remains high. Supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict exposed vulnerabilities in the food system and highlighted the strategic importance of food resilience.

What Needs to Change

Adopt a food-resilience rather than food-self-sufficiency approach. Diversify import sources, invest in strategic reserves, and focus domestic production on high-value, water-efficient crops and aquaculture. Build regional food-trade partnerships for mutual security. Accept that complete self-sufficiency is neither realistic nor economically efficient.

Risk Assessment

Amber severity. While complete food self-sufficiency is neither realistic nor economically efficient for a water-scarce country, the current import dependency creates fiscal and strategic vulnerability. Climate change will intensify the challenge by reducing already-limited agricultural water availability.

Recommended Interventions

Priority interventions: expand controlled-environment agriculture using greenhouses and vertical farms powered by treated wastewater and solar energy; invest in aquaculture as a protein source; establish a national strategic food reserve for staples including wheat, rice, and sugar; negotiate long-term supply agreements with food-surplus nations; and reduce food waste through cold-chain investments and consumer-awareness campaigns.

This gap alert is issued by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit and is updated quarterly. Severity levels: GREEN (on/ahead of track), AMBER (gap widening but recoverable), RED (structural gap requiring urgent intervention). Data sources include NCSI, World Bank WGI, IMF, and relevant international indices.