Gap Alert: Omanisation Rate
Severity: AMBER
The private-sector Omanisation rate has reached approximately 18 percent against targets that envisage a substantially higher share by 2030.
Gap Analysis
Despite years of quota-based Omanisation policies, private-sector employers continue to rely heavily on expatriate labour, particularly in construction, retail, and hospitality. The gap reflects a fundamental wage-expectations mismatch: Omani job seekers expect public-sector-equivalent compensation, while private employers optimise for cost. The result is a dual labour market where Omanisation targets are met on paper through low-productivity placements rather than genuine integration into productive roles.
What Needs to Change
Move from quota-based compliance to productivity-linked incentives. Reform the wage-subsidy structure to reward employers who invest in training nationals for skilled roles. Align TVET curricula with private-sector skill demands through mandatory employer input into programme design. Address the public-private wage differential.
Risk Assessment
Failure to close this gap threatens social stability, as youth unemployment among nationals remains a sensitive issue. It also undermines the fiscal case for diversification: if nationals do not participate in private-sector growth, the social contract requires continued public-sector employment expansion, perpetuating fiscal pressure.
Recommended Interventions
Key interventions: redesign the Labour Market Tax to make expatriate hiring in targeted sectors progressively more expensive; launch a national apprenticeship programme with mandatory employer participation in key industries; expand wage-subsidy duration from one to three years for skilled positions; and publish quarterly Omanisation dashboards by sector to increase transparency and accountability.
This gap alert is issued by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit and is updated quarterly. Severity levels: GREEN (on/ahead of track), AMBER (gap widening but recoverable), RED (structural gap requiring urgent intervention). Data sources include NCSI, World Bank WGI, IMF, and relevant international indices.