Gap Alert: Real GDP Per Capita

Gap Alert: Real GDP Per Capita

Severity: AMBER

Real GDP per capita has grown by approximately 8.6 percent since 2017, far below the trajectory needed for the 40 percent increase target by 2030.

Gap Analysis

The per-capita income gap reflects two compounding challenges: sluggish headline GDP growth at 1.1 percent and continued population expansion through expatriate inflows. Even if headline growth accelerated to 5 percent, population growth of 2 to 3 percent would yield per-capita gains of only 2 to 3 percent annually, which would be insufficient to close the gap to the 2030 target. The mathematical challenge is severe: closing a 30-plus percentage-point gap in fewer than five years.

What Needs to Change

The growth strategy must explicitly target per-capita metrics, not just aggregate GDP. This requires higher productivity per worker, a more skill-intensive labour force, and moderation of population growth through a shift from volume-based to value-based expatriate employment policies.

Risk Assessment

Amber severity, bordering on red. The mathematical challenge of closing a 30-plus percentage-point gap in fewer than five years is severe. Even the 2040 target of plus 90 percent requires a step-change in economic performance that is not currently evident.

Recommended Interventions

Recommended actions: introduce a per-capita GDP dashboard as a headline reporting metric; reform the visa system to favour high-wage, high-productivity workers; invest in automation to reduce low-skill labour dependency; and target high-value-added sectors including technology, financial services, and advanced manufacturing in the industrial strategy.

This gap alert is issued by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit and is updated quarterly. Severity levels: GREEN (on/ahead of track), AMBER (gap widening but recoverable), RED (structural gap requiring urgent intervention). Data sources include NCSI, World Bank WGI, IMF, and relevant international indices.