Gap Alert: Renewable Energy Share

Gap Alert: Renewable Energy Share

Severity: AMBER

Renewable energy accounts for less than 3 percent of electricity generation, far below the 30 percent target for 2030.

Gap Analysis

Oman’s renewable-energy deployment has been slow compared to GCC peers. While the Ibri II solar plant at 500 MW is operational and several projects are in the pipeline, the installed base remains a tiny fraction of the country’s approximately 15 GW generation capacity. The 30 percent target by 2030 implies adding roughly 4 to 5 GW of renewable capacity in fewer than five years, which represents an enormous acceleration from the current pace of deployment.

What Needs to Change

Accelerate project tendering and approval timelines. Develop grid infrastructure to accommodate intermittent solar and wind capacity. Establish a clear regulatory framework for distributed generation and net metering. Mobilise private capital through standardised power-purchase agreements with bankable off-take structures.

Risk Assessment

Amber severity. The gap is large but closing it is technically and economically feasible given Oman’s exceptional solar irradiance and wind resources along the southern coast. The constraint is policy execution and grid readiness, not resource availability.

Recommended Interventions

Priority actions: issue a rolling five-year renewable-energy procurement plan; establish a grid-development authority with dedicated investment capacity; offer viability-gap funding for early-stage projects; fast-track the Oman Wind Energy pipeline; and integrate renewable targets into the regulated electricity tariff framework.

This gap alert is issued by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit and is updated quarterly. Severity levels: GREEN (on/ahead of track), AMBER (gap widening but recoverable), RED (structural gap requiring urgent intervention). Data sources include NCSI, World Bank WGI, IMF, and relevant international indices.