Current Account to GDP – KPI Status Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline | -14.8% (2017) |
| Current | -2.5% |
| Target 2030 | -7% |
| Target 2040 | -1.5% |
| Status | Ahead |
Trajectory Analysis
The current-account deficit has narrowed dramatically from -14.8 percent of GDP in 2017 to -2.5 percent, already surpassing the 2030 target of -7 percent. The improvement reflects higher oil export receipts, import substitution in food and light manufacturing, and growing services exports in logistics and tourism. The 2040 target of -1.5 percent appears achievable if current trends persist. The improvement has been structural rather than purely cyclical, with non-oil exports contributing a growing share of the adjustment.
Risk Factors
A terms-of-trade shock combining oil-price collapse with rising import costs could quickly reverse gains. Mega-project imports during the construction phase of hydrogen and Duqm investments may temporarily widen the deficit. Capital-goods imports for diversification projects are a necessary short-term cost.
Positive Signals
Re-export trade through Sohar and Salalah free zones is growing rapidly. Remittance outflows are stabilising as Omanisation raises the share of national income retained domestically. Tourism inflows are projected to double by 2030. Services exports in logistics and port operations are an increasingly important offset.
Methodology Note
Current-account balance as a share of nominal GDP, sourced from the Central Bank of Oman balance-of-payments statistics using BPM6 methodology. Includes goods, services, primary income, and secondary income balances.
This tracker is updated quarterly by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit. Data sources include NCSI, the Central Bank of Oman, the World Bank, and relevant international organisations. Methodological notes are provided for transparency; users should consult primary sources for the most current figures.