Economic Complexity Index Tracker

KPI Status 🔴

Indicator Analysis

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) is Vision 2040’s most ambitious and arguably most honest indicator — measuring whether Oman is developing genuinely sophisticated export industries or merely growing service sectors and resource processing.

Current position: ECI ~0.25 (2022) — significant improvement from -0.004, but vastly below the 2030 target of >1.186 (Top 20). The gap between current (~0.25) and 2030 target (>1.186) is wider than the gap between the 2017 baseline (-0.004) and current position.

Top-10 ECI context: The top-10 ECI positions are held by Germany, Japan, Switzerland, South Korea, Austria, Czechia, Sweden, Finland, and Singapore. These are economies with deep industrial ecosystems, sophisticated manufacturing, and complex services built over 50-100 years.

Gap Assessment

The ECI target is the most challenging in Vision 2040. Achieving top-10 by 2040 would be unprecedented in terms of speed — no country has moved from ECI rank 50-60 to top 10 in 18 years.

Realistic Trajectory

A realistic ECI trajectory for Oman might see:

• 2030: ECI ~0.6-0.8 (rank ~35-45) — based on green hydrogen, tourism, and logistics development
• 2040: ECI ~0.9-1.2 (rank ~25-35) — based on full green hydrogen production and petrochemical diversification

This would represent significant achievement — but well short of the top-10 target. The target may need reassessment at Vision 2040’s mid-point review.

Data Sources

This indicator is drawn from: official Oman Vision 2040 Progress Reports (IFU/Supreme Council for Planning), NCSI national statistics, and relevant international organisations (UNDP, World Bank, IMF, WIPO as applicable).

Note: This page contains Layer 2 premium analysis. Underlying indicator definitions and headline values are available in the free Layer 1 content.