KPI Status 🟢
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Baseline (2017-2018) | -11.7% (2017) |
| Current Estimate | +2.8% (2024 est) |
| 2030 Target | ≤-3% |
| 2040 Target | Surplus territory |
| Status | Ahead Of Target |
Indicator Analysis
The fiscal balance is Vision 2040’s most impressive achievement — a turnaround from -11.7% GDP deficit (2017) to +2.8% surplus (2024 estimate) in seven years.
Surpluses: Three consecutive surpluses (2022, 2023, 2024) represent a structural change in Oman’s fiscal position, not merely a cyclical improvement.
Target exceedance: The 2030 interim target of “not exceeding -3%” has been dramatically exceeded — Oman is already in surplus territory, ahead of the 2040 “surplus territory” target.
Drivers
- Higher oil prices (2022-2023)
- VAT revenue (~1-1.5% of GDP annually since 2021)
- Expenditure rationalisation
- Improved non-oil revenues
- Debt management (lower interest costs as ratings improved)
Risk Factors
Oil price dependency: If Brent crude falls significantly below $75-80/barrel (Oman’s estimated break-even), the surplus could reverse. The 2024 surplus partially reflects oil prices above this level.
Spending pressures: Vision 2040 investment requirements (infrastructure, education, healthcare) create pressure on public expenditure. Maintaining fiscal discipline while meeting Vision 2040 investment commitments is the ongoing challenge.
Debt Trajectory
Gross debt declining from 44% to approximately 35% of GDP — well within the 60% ceiling target and creating meaningful fiscal headroom for counter-cyclical response if oil prices decline.
Data Sources
This indicator is drawn from: official Oman Vision 2040 Progress Reports (IFU/Supreme Council for Planning), NCSI national statistics, and relevant international organisations (UNDP, World Bank, IMF, WIPO as applicable).
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