Gross Debt to GDP – KPI Status Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline | 44% (2017) |
| Current | 35% |
| Target 2030 | <60% |
| Target 2040 | <60% |
| Status | On Track |
Trajectory Analysis
Public debt peaked at roughly 68 percent of GDP in 2020 during the twin oil-price and pandemic shock. Fiscal consolidation including subsidy reforms, VAT introduction, and buoyant oil revenues has brought the ratio down to an estimated 35 percent, well within the 60 percent ceiling. The trajectory is strongly positive. Debt-service costs as a share of revenue have also declined, improving fiscal sustainability metrics. The government has used windfall oil revenues to prepay expensive debt tranches and build fiscal buffers.
Risk Factors
A prolonged oil-price downturn could force renewed borrowing. Contingent liabilities from SOEs and PPP guarantees are not fully captured in headline figures. Rising global interest rates increase refinancing costs on Oman’s Eurobond portfolio. The growing use of off-balance-sheet financing through SOEs could mask the true public-debt burden.
Positive Signals
Credit-rating upgrades from Moody’s and S&P have lowered borrowing spreads. The establishment of a debt-management office has improved liability management. Early repayment of high-coupon debt in 2023 reduced interest costs. The sovereign wealth fund provides a buffer against future shocks.
Methodology Note
General-government gross debt as a percentage of nominal GDP, compiled from Ministry of Finance bulletins and IMF Article IV reports. Includes central government bonds, loans, and sukuk. Does not include SOE debt or contingent liabilities.
This tracker is updated quarterly by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit. Data sources include NCSI, the Central Bank of Oman, the World Bank, and relevant international organisations. Methodological notes are provided for transparency; users should consult primary sources for the most current figures.