KPI Status ⚪
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Baseline (2017-2018) | 1.6% (2017) |
| Current Estimate | ~1-2% (2024) |
| 2030 Target | 2%-3% range |
| 2040 Target | 2%-3% range |
| Status | On Target |
Indicator Analysis
Oman’s inflation rate has remained stable and within the Vision 2040 target range of 2-3% (or below it) throughout the tracking period.
CBO management: The Central Bank of Oman’s OMR-USD peg ensures that Oman’s monetary conditions closely track the US Federal Reserve’s policy. When the Fed raised rates sharply in 2022-2023, Oman’s rates rose in parallel — which helped contain imported inflation.
Global price moderation: After the 2022 global inflation spike (driven by energy and food prices post-Ukraine war), global inflation has moderated in 2024 — contributing to Oman’s benign inflation environment.
Peg Implications
The OMR-USD peg eliminates exchange rate inflation risk but creates monetary policy import dependence. If US monetary conditions become inappropriate for Oman’s domestic cycle (e.g., aggressive rate cuts during a period when Oman’s economy is running hot), the peg constrains the CBO’s response.
Target Assessment
Oman is currently on target for the inflation KPI. The more significant monetary policy challenge in Vision 2040 is not inflation control but rather the peg’s constraint on using monetary policy as a diversification tool (e.g., managing exchange rate competitiveness for non-oil exports).
Data Sources
This indicator is drawn from: official Oman Vision 2040 Progress Reports (IFU/Supreme Council for Planning), NCSI national statistics, and relevant international organisations (UNDP, World Bank, IMF, WIPO as applicable).
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