Non-Oil Revenue to GDP – KPI Status Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline | 9.5% (2017) |
| Current | 12.8% |
| Target 2030 | 15% |
| Target 2040 | 18% |
| Status | On Track |
Trajectory Analysis
Non-oil revenue has risen from 9.5 percent of GDP to 12.8 percent, driven by the introduction of VAT in April 2021, excise duties, and higher corporate-tax compliance. The 2030 target of 15 percent is within reach if the current trajectory holds. Reaching 18 percent by 2040 will require further broadening of the tax base and significant growth in fees, dividends, and SOE profit transfers. The VAT has proven to be a reliable revenue generator, exceeding initial Ministry of Finance projections by roughly 15 percent in its first full year.
Risk Factors
Political economy constraints may slow further tax reform as personal income tax is not yet on the agenda. Base erosion from free-zone incentives could offset gains. Compliance enforcement capacity remains nascent. A weakening economy could reduce corporate-tax receipts and VAT collections simultaneously.
Positive Signals
VAT revenues have exceeded initial forecasts. Digital invoicing through e-Fawateer is improving collection rates. Tourism levies and municipal fees are being rationalised. The tax authority is investing in AI-powered compliance monitoring systems.
Methodology Note
Non-oil revenue includes tax revenue (corporate tax, VAT, excise), fees, penalties, investment income, and SOE dividends, expressed as a share of nominal GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance annual budget statements and quarterly fiscal reports.
This tracker is updated quarterly by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit. Data sources include NCSI, the Central Bank of Oman, the World Bank, and relevant international organisations. Methodological notes are provided for transparency; users should consult primary sources for the most current figures.