Oil GDP Share – KPI Status Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline | 39% (2017) |
| Current | 29.5% |
| Target 2030 | 16.1% |
| Target 2040 | 8.4% |
| Status | On Track |
Trajectory Analysis
The share of oil activities in GDP has fallen from 39 percent in 2017 to 29.5 percent, a meaningful structural shift reflecting both deliberate diversification and periods of lower oil prices that compressed the numerator. Non-oil sectors including logistics, tourism, and manufacturing are expanding their relative weight. However, the remaining path to 16.1 percent by 2030 requires the non-oil economy to grow at roughly twice the rate of the hydrocarbon sector every year. The 2040 target of 8.4 percent envisions an economy where oil is a minor contributor, requiring a near-complete structural transformation over the next 15 years.
Risk Factors
A sustained oil-price super-cycle could temporarily re-inflate the oil share in nominal terms, masking underlying non-oil weakness. Downstream petrochemical projects such as Liwa Plastics blur the line between oil and industrial value added. Accounting reclassifications could artificially shift the metric without genuine structural change.
Positive Signals
Tourism receipts have doubled since 2019. ICT services are growing at 9 percent annually. Logistics throughput at Sohar and Salalah ports continues to rise steadily. The green-hydrogen pipeline could add 1 to 2 percent of non-oil GDP by 2030 as multiple projects move toward construction and operation.
Methodology Note
Oil GDP share is computed from NCSI national accounts at current prices, defining oil activities as crude petroleum and natural gas extraction (ISIC Rev.4 Section B, Division 06). Refining and petrochemicals are classified under manufacturing. Natural gas liquids are included in the oil share.
This tracker is updated quarterly by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit. Data sources include NCSI, the Central Bank of Oman, the World Bank, and relevant international organisations. Methodological notes are provided for transparency; users should consult primary sources for the most current figures.