KPI Status 🔴
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Baseline (2017-2018) | 11.6% (2016) |
| Current Estimate | ~18.5% (2024) |
| 2030 Target | 35% |
| 2040 Target | 40% |
| Status | Significantly Behind |
Indicator Analysis
Private sector Omanisation is Vision 2040’s most politically challenging target — and the one where the gap between ambition and reality is most stark.
Trajectory: 11.6% (2016) to 18.5% (2024) — a 6.9 percentage point increase over 8 years (approximately 0.86 points per year).
Required trajectory: To reach 35% by 2030 (6 years away), Oman needs to add 16.5 percentage points — approximately 2.75 per year. This is more than 3x the historical pace.
Structural gap: The gap is structural, not merely cyclical. Without addressing the Omani/expatriate wage differential, private sector employers have a persistent economic incentive to prefer expatriate workers.
Why 35% by 2030 Is Very Challenging
The 2030 target requires approximately 90,000-120,000 additional Omani private sector workers annually — for 6 consecutive years. This requires:
- Acceleration of economic diversification creating private sector roles
- Closing of skills mismatch (the education system must produce more practically skilled graduates)
- Cultural shift toward private sector careers
- Regulatory pressure sufficient to override economic incentives
Most Likely Outcome
A realistic mid-scenario suggests Oman reaching 22-25% Omanisation by 2030 — meaningful progress, but below the 35% target. The 40% 2040 target may be more achievable if Vision 2040’s diversification creates sufficient high-value private sector roles that Omanis actively compete for.
Data Sources
This indicator is drawn from: official Oman Vision 2040 Progress Reports (IFU/Supreme Council for Planning), NCSI national statistics, and relevant international organisations (UNDP, World Bank, IMF, WIPO as applicable).
Note: This page contains Layer 2 premium analysis. Underlying indicator definitions and headline values are available in the free Layer 1 content.