Real GDP Growth – KPI Status Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline | 3.6% average (2017) |
| Current | 1.1% |
| Target 2030 | 5% |
| Target 2040 | 5% |
| Status | At Risk |
Trajectory Analysis
Real GDP growth averaged 3.6 percent around the baseline year but has decelerated to roughly 1.1 percent in the most recent period. The Vision 2040 target of a sustained 5 percent annual expansion requires a dramatic uplift, nearly a five-fold increase from the current rate. Achieving this will demand simultaneous acceleration in investment, productivity, and labour-force participation. The growth decomposition shows that both total factor productivity and capital deepening have been insufficient, while labour input growth has been driven by low-productivity expatriate employment rather than skill-intensive job creation.
Risk Factors
OPEC+ production caps limit oil-sector contributions to headline growth. Global trade fragmentation could slow logistics-hub ambitions. Tight fiscal consolidation may crowd out growth-enhancing public investment in the short term. The risk of prolonged low oil prices would simultaneously constrain fiscal space and reduce headline GDP.
Positive Signals
The Oman Investment Authority restructuring is channelling sovereign wealth into domestic growth sectors. Green-energy megaprojects at Duqm and Salalah are progressing toward FID. The 2024 Foreign Capital Investment Law liberalises ownership ceilings, potentially unlocking a new wave of private-sector investment and technology transfer.
Methodology Note
Annual change in real GDP at constant 2010 prices, sourced from NCSI national accounts and cross-referenced with IMF WEO estimates. Quarterly GDP data is annualised using four-quarter rolling averages to smooth seasonal volatility.
This tracker is updated quarterly by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit. Data sources include NCSI, the Central Bank of Oman, the World Bank, and relevant international organisations. Methodological notes are provided for transparency; users should consult primary sources for the most current figures.