KPI Tracker: Real GDP Per Capita Growth

Real GDP Per Capita Growth – KPI Status Overview

Trajectory Analysis

Oman’s real GDP per capita has risen modestly from OMR 6,264 in 2017 to approximately OMR 6,800 today, an increase of roughly 8.6 percent over seven years. To meet the 2030 milestone of a 40 percent increase the country would need to close a gap of more than 30 percentage points in fewer than five years, implying an annual compounding growth rate of about 5.2 percent. The post-pandemic recovery boosted nominal figures but population growth and base-effect corrections have dampened per-capita gains. The structural challenge is twofold: headline GDP growth remains sluggish at around 1.1 percent, while population expansion through expatriate labour inflows dilutes per-capita measures. Without a decisive shift in both productivity and the composition of employment, the 2030 target appears out of reach.

Risk Factors

Volatile oil prices constrain the fiscal space needed for transformational investment. A relatively high population growth rate driven by expatriate labour dilutes per-capita gains unless productivity rises commensurately. Structural reform delays in SOE privatisation and labour-market flexibility further cloud the outlook. The risk of a global recession or sustained commodity-price weakness would compound these challenges.

Positive Signals

Duqm Special Economic Zone is attracting greenfield FDI in petrochemicals, logistics, and dry-dock services. The National Hydrogen Strategy is opening a new non-oil revenue stream with multiple projects approaching Final Investment Decision. The government’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan targets expenditure rationalisation, freeing capital for productivity-enhancing public investment in education, digital infrastructure, and innovation ecosystems.

Methodology Note

Calculated as constant-price GDP (base year 2010) divided by mid-year population estimates from the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). Growth rates are compounded annually. Population estimates include all residents (nationals and expatriates). Cross-referenced with IMF World Economic Outlook projections.

This tracker is updated quarterly by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit. Data sources include NCSI, the Central Bank of Oman, the World Bank, and relevant international organisations. Methodological notes are provided for transparency; users should consult primary sources for the most current figures.