Total Public Expenditure to GDP – KPI Status Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline | 45.1% (2017) |
| Current | 38% |
| Target 2030 | 34% |
| Target 2040 | 25% |
| Status | On Track |
Trajectory Analysis
Government spending as a share of GDP has declined from 45.1 percent to 38 percent, reflecting subsidy cuts, public-wage restraint, and project prioritisation under the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. Reaching 34 percent by 2030 requires continued discipline. The 2040 target of 25 percent implies a structural transformation of the state’s role toward regulation rather than direct provision. Current and capital expenditure have both been rationalised, with the government shifting from direct service provision to PPP-based delivery models in health and infrastructure.
Risk Factors
Social spending pressures in housing, healthcare, and education may resist further compression. Defence spending is largely non-discretionary. Capital-expenditure cuts risk undermining the very diversification that enables future savings. Public-sector wage bills remain structurally high due to Omanisation commitments.
Positive Signals
PPP frameworks are shifting infrastructure costs off-balance-sheet. E-government initiatives are reducing administrative overhead. Shared-services centres across ministries are eliminating duplication. Energy-subsidy reform has been politically managed and is generating significant fiscal savings.
Methodology Note
Total expenditure of the central government (current plus capital) as a share of nominal GDP, from annual budget out-turn reports published by the Ministry of Finance. Includes defence, social, and development spending.
This tracker is updated quarterly by the Oman Vision 2040 Research Unit. Data sources include NCSI, the Central Bank of Oman, the World Bank, and relevant international organisations. Methodological notes are provided for transparency; users should consult primary sources for the most current figures.