What is Oman Vision 2040?
Oman Vision 2040 is the Sultanate’s national reference document for economic and social planning for the period 2021 to 2040. It functions as the supreme strategic framework from which all national strategies, sector plans, and five-year development plans derive their authority and direction.
The Vision was developed under the directive of His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said, carried forward and officially launched by His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik on January 8, 2021. It represents a fundamental break from the oil-revenue-dependent model that characterised Oman’s development since the 1970s, and charts a course towards a knowledge-based, innovation-driven economy in which the private sector is the primary engine of growth.
At its core, Vision 2040 articulates a single, ambitious aspiration: “Oman: Joining the World’s Developed Countries.” Every indicator, target, programme, and initiative in the Vision is subordinate to this objective.
The Four Pillars
Vision 2040 is organised around four interconnected pillars, each containing distinct national priorities:
Pillar 1: People and Society
The foundational pillar, recognising that no economic transformation is sustainable without human development. A society of creative individuals — proud of their identity, innovative, globally competitive, and leading a decent life with sustained well-being.
Contains four priorities: Education, Health, Citizenship and Culture, Well-being and Social Protection.
Pillar 2: Economy and Development
The transformation pillar, addressing the structural shift from oil dependency to a productive, diversified economy based on innovation, private sector leadership, and global integration.
Contains five priorities: Economic Leadership, Economic Diversification and Fiscal Sustainability, Labour Market and Employment, Private Sector and Investment, Development of Governorates and Sustainable Cities.
Pillar 3: Sustainable Environment
The resilience pillar, ensuring that development does not compromise the natural resources and environmental assets that underpin long-term prosperity. The goal is a safe, well-preserved environment with balanced ecosystems and a pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050.
Contains one priority: Environment and Natural Resources.
Pillar 4: Governance and Institutional Performance
The enabling pillar, providing the institutional infrastructure — rule of law, accountability, anti-corruption, efficient administration — without which the other three pillars cannot function effectively.
Contains two priorities: Legislative, Judicial and Oversight System; Governance of State’s Administrative Bodies.
The Twelve Priorities
Vision 2040 translates its four pillars into twelve discrete national priorities, each with its own strategic direction, measurable objectives, and performance indicators:
- Education, Learning, Scientific Research and National Capabilities — Building a knowledge-based society through world-class education and innovation
- Health — A leading healthcare system with international standards
- Citizenship, Identity and National Heritage and Culture — A society proud of its identity and committed to its citizenship
- Well-being and Social Protection — A decent and sustainable life for all
- Economic Leadership and Management — Dynamic economic leadership within an integrated institutional framework
- Economic Diversification and Fiscal Sustainability — A diversified economy based on technology, knowledge and innovation
- Labour Market and Employment — A dynamic labour market attracting talent and keeping pace with change
- The Private Sector, Investment and International Cooperation — A competitive private sector aligned with the global economy
- Development of Governorates and Sustainable Cities — Balanced development through decentralisation
- Environment and Natural Resources — A sustainable natural environment supporting green economy growth
- Legislative, Judicial and Oversight System — A leading legislative and judicial system built on fairness and transparency
- Governance of State’s Administrative Bodies, Resources and Projects — Effective, transparent, accountable governance
Key Performance Indicators
Vision 2040 employs approximately 70 active performance indicators drawn from internationally recognised indices. These span all four pillars and enable transparent, benchmarked measurement of progress.
Selected headline 2040 targets:
| Indicator | 2017/18 Baseline | 2040 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Oil GDP Share | 61% | 91.6% |
| Real GDP per Capita Growth | 6,264 OMR | +90% increase |
| FDI Net Inflow (% GDP) | Low single digits | 10% |
| Global Innovation Index | 32.8 (rank 69) | >51.98 (top 20) |
| Global Competitiveness Index | 64.4 (rank 47) | >76.6 (top 20) |
| Human Development Index | 0.821 (rank 48) | >0.908 (top 20) |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -11.7% | Does not exceed -3% |
| Omanis in Private Sector | 11.6% | 40% |
Implementation Architecture
Five-Year Plans: Vision 2040 is implemented through four successive five-year development plans (Tenth through Thirteenth), providing operational detail and annual budget allocation.
Phased Focus Areas: Each five-year plan identifies specific priority areas of focus, allowing the government to sequence reforms and concentrate resources.
Oversight: The Oman Vision 2040 Implementation Follow-up Unit (IFU) monitors progress, produces annual Vision Progress Reports, and coordinates across government entities.
Annual Reporting: Progress Reports have been published in 2022, 2023, and 2024/2025, each providing updated indicator readings, government achievements, and sector narratives.
Progress to Date (2025)
Five years into the Vision period, results are mixed but broadly encouraging:
Positive developments:
- Budget surplus for three consecutive years (2022-2024), with fiscal balance at approximately +2.8% of GDP — sharply ahead of the -11.7% baseline
- Public debt declining to approximately 35% of GDP, compared to the 44% baseline
- Sultan Qaboos University ranked 334th globally in QS 2026 rankings, with five Omani universities now in the top 500
- Global Innovation Index improved from rank 79 (2022) to 69 (2025)
- Corruption Perceptions Index improved 20 places to rank 50th in 2024
- Non-oil GDP share rising, estimated at approximately 70.5% in 2023
Areas requiring acceleration:
- Private sector Omanisation at approximately 18.5%, well below the 2040 target of 40%
- Renewable energy capacity significantly behind the 2030 interim target of 6.5 GW
- FDI inflows as a percentage of GDP remain well below the 10% target
- Economic Complexity Index improving slowly — the fundamental measure of structural diversification
- Real GDP growth constrained by global oil market dynamics
Why It Matters
Understanding Vision 2040 is the essential foundation for any engagement with Oman — as investor, trading partner, researcher, or policymaker. It is not merely a government planning document; it is the operating system of Oman’s economy for the next fifteen years.
Every ministry budget allocation, every regulatory reform, every investment incentive, every sector strategy traces its authority back to Vision 2040 and its twelve priorities. Companies entering Oman without understanding this framework are operating without a map.
The Vision also provides the benchmark against which all performance claims should be tested. When the government reports a sectoral milestone or economic achievement, Vision 2040’s indicators provide the standard of assessment. This platform exists to perform exactly that function — with rigour, independence, and depth.